Why is my Predicted Race Time Outside the Range Shown?
By Dr. Sean Radford
•
10th October 2025
(Updated 29th October 2025)
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| Prediction is FASTER than the Range
(e.g., ML Predicts 3:36h, Range's lower bound is 3:49h) | The prediction model is
optimistic.
It believes that you are capable of a performance better
than the historical results achieved by most similar runners. |
| Prediction is SLOWER than the Range
(e.g., ML Predicts 4:30h, Range's upper bound is 4:19h) | The prediction model is
conservative.
It indicates the system is prioritising caution, resulting in a prediction that is
slower than the historical average of similar runners. |