Why is my Predicted Race Time Outside the Range Shown?

Why is my Predicted Race Time Outside the Range Shown?

By Dr. Sean Radford 10th October 2025 (Updated 29th October 2025)

| | Prediction is FASTER than the Range
(e.g., ML Predicts 3:36h, Range's lower bound is 3:49h) | The prediction model is optimistic.

It believes that you are capable of a performance better than the historical results achieved by most similar runners. | | Prediction is SLOWER than the Range
(e.g., ML Predicts 4:30h, Range's upper bound is 4:19h) | The prediction model is conservative.

It indicates the system is prioritising caution, resulting in a prediction that is slower than the historical average of similar runners. |