Why is my Predicted Race Time Outside the Range Shown?
By Dr. Sean Radford
•
10th October 2025
(Updated 29th October 2025)
| Scenario | Explanation |
|---|---|
|
Prediction is FASTER than the Range
(e.g., ML Predicts 3:36h, Range's lower bound is 3:49h) |
The prediction model is
optimistic
.
It believes that you are capable of a performance better than the historical results achieved by most similar runners. |
|
Prediction is SLOWER than the Range
(e.g., ML Predicts 4:30h, Range's upper bound is 4:19h) |
The prediction model is
conservative
.
It indicates the system is prioritising caution, resulting in a prediction that is slower than the historical average of similar runners. |